If History Repeats Itself... 2016 USA Olympic Team "Predictions"

Sep 14, 2012 by Anne Phillips

The 2012 USA women's gymnastics team dominated competition in London at the 2012 Olympic Games to win the country's first Olympic team gold since the Magnificent Seven in 1996. Gabby Douglas, McKayla Maroney, Aly Raisman, Kyla Ross, and Jordyn Wieber have officially gone down in history.

But just like that, the gymnastics world is beginning to shift its focus to Rio and the 2016 Olympic Games.

While it's way too early to predict who will be on that 2016 USA women's Olympic team, let's get some insights by taking a look back at where the members of the Fierce Five finished their seasons four years ago en route to the 2012 Olympic Games. All five girls were either junior elites and/or level 10 national qualifiers four years out in 2008.

Jordyn Wieber - 2008 Junior (elite) National Champion!

In her third Visa Championships, Wieber decisively won the all around title ahead of AOGC's Samantha Shapiro. Wieber was clearly on target to take on the world. In fact, Wieber's scores would have placed her 6th all around in the 2008 senior division. Less than a year later, Wieber (still a junior elite) won the 2009 American Cup ahead of a tough field of senior elite competitors including soon-to-be World Champion Bridget Sloan.

Kyla Ross - 2008 J.O. (level 10) National Champion in the Junior A Division

Ross posted a big 38.375 to easily win the youngest division of the 2008 Level 10 National Championships. She also won beam and floor. Ross turned elite the following year and continued her winning ways. She won the all around title at the 2009 Visa Championships, then repeated as junior national champion in 2010.

Gabby Douglas - Tied for 16th all around at the 2008 Visa Championships

Before her summer elite season, Douglas also competed level 10 in 2008. She tied for 9th all around and placed 3rd on beam at the J.O. Nationals. As an elite, the highest she ever finished at the Visa Championships (until 2012) was 4th in 2010, her last season as a junior. Douglas' breakout meet was the 2011 World Championships in Tokyo. She finally won her first major all around title at the 2012 Olympic Trials, about a month before becoming Olympic Champion.

Alexandra Raisman - Tied for 14th at the 2008 J.O. Nationals

The current Olympic Floor Champion also tied for 4th on floor in 2008. An 8.85 on her weakest event, bars, kept her out of the top 10 in the all around. Raisman then went elite in 2009 and impressively made the junior national team in her first try, placing 3rd all around. The following year, Raisman moved up to the senior rankings and was named to her first World Championships team, Rotterdam 2010.

McKayla Maroney - Placed 40th all around at the 2012 J.O. Nationals after a disastrous bar routine. She did, however, dominate vault, winning the event with a 9.80!

Maroney turned elite the following year (2009) and made a name for herself as the only junior in the field throwing the difficult Amanar vault which she later perfected. But once again, low scores on bars and a few other falls left her 27th all around in 2009. Then in 2010, after a gym change and upgraded routines, Maroney improved to 3rd all around, secured her place on the junior national team, and began to look like a serious contender for the 2012 Olympic team.

Now, IF history completely repeats itself (which is totally not likely, especially in the unpredictable sport of gymnastics), based on identical national results at the junior levels in 2012, let's find out who would make up the 2016 team.

First of all, there were no returning Olympians on the 2012 USA women's Olympic team. Throughout the quadrennium, every single 2008 team member attempted a comeback at one point or another, but in the end the U.S. was simply too deep for them to fit on the five member team. If history repeats itself, none of the 2012 Olympic team members will make the 2016 team.

Now let's look at this year's individuals who matched the results of the Fierce Five four years ago.

Future Jordyn Wieber? - Lexie Priessman of Cincinnati Gymnastics Academy, 1st all around at the 2012 Junior Visa Championships

Just like Wieber in 2008, this was the third Visa Championships for Priessman. With her big Amanar vault and high difficulty on each event, Preissman is absolutely in the pool of athletes to watch on the road to 2016. She will also have a good shot at the 2013 World Championships as she is set to turn senior next year. The question is, can she hang on another four years and compete in Rio at age 19? Interestingly, Nastia Liukin was the junior national champion in 2008 at age 15, four years before her Olympic glory.
Click here to watch videos of Lexie Priessman

Future Kyla Ross? - Felicia Hano of West Coast Elite, 1st all around at the 2012 J.O. National Championships

Felicia Hano won the level 10 junior a national title with a 38.20 and also claimed the vault title with a 9.80! And, she's a former World Championships silver medalist in trampoline and tumbling! She told us after winning J.O.'s that she hopes to pursue elite in the future.
Click here to meet Felicia Hano

Future Gabby Douglas? - Lacy Dagen of San Mateo, 16th all around at the 2012 Visa Championships

Dagan battled back from a few mistakes on day 1 of the Visa Championships to finish 16th, the same place Gabby finished as a junior in 2008. She won all around titles at both the level 8 and level 9 Regional Championships before turning elite. However, Dagen will make the tough move to senior international elite next season.
Click here to watch Lacy's 2012 Floor Routine

Future Aly Raisman? - Well, no one placed 14th in the jr a division of the 2012 J.O. Nationals as there was a 4-way tie for 11th! The gymnasts in the tie were Rachael Flam of Stars Houston, Wynter Childers of Spearfish, Samantha Ogden of WOGA, and Lynnzee Brown of GAGE - all promising gymnasts. Flam was 2nd on vault, Childers won floor, Ogden tied for 2nd on bars, and Brown tied for 3rd on floor.
Watch their videos: Rachel Flam, Wynter Childers, Samantha Ogden, Lynnzee Brown

Future McKayla Maroney? - This one is tricky. Maroney was an anomaly in that she was weaker in the all around in 2008 but especially strong on one event. Maroney won the vault at her J.O. Championships with a 9.80, just like Felicia Hano did this year (in addition to the all around). Maroney was very much a work in progress back in 2008 and didn't have her break out elite meet until 2010.

Now is this all total bogus? Probably. But, to all the aspiring Olympians out there it does show that you CAN place 40th at J.O. Nationals, or 16th at Visa Championships, and still become an Olympic Champion. Each member of the Fierce Five had an Olympic dream, devoted themselves to the sport and put in the work day in, day out. They also had a little bit of luck.

Rita Wieber, mother of Jordyn Wieber, put it best in her post-Olympic blog, "I always joked that along with being an amazing gymnast, 20 planets needed to align in the right configuration at the right moment to get one of the spots on the team".

It's way too early to predict the 2016 Olympic team, but it will certainly be fun to follow the large pool of Olympic hopefuls as they continue their journey to Rio in 2016.